Pre Week 13

So, once again, Wednesday night and the waivers have all gone through. Hopefully I can sling you a rope and guide you through the fantasy jungle.

At this end of the season you hope to still be within touching distance and if you are, build on it to win the league.

From week 6 or 7 you should be looking to pick players that not only perform but have decent matchups down the home straight to give you the edge in the run up to the playoffs and beyond.


Here's some decent short term options for each position, this week. Asterisk means they are good for most of the remaining weeks.

QB
Hasselbeck
Newton
Bortles
Dalton
Stafford**
Mariota
Cutler!
Fitzpatrick
Smith
Osweiller*
Bridgewater*

RB
CJ Anderson
Jonathan Stewart
Buck Allen
Blount / James white equal value this week though the bold may favour White
Doug Martin
Mcfadden**
Matt Jones *
Sproles / Murray flex/low2*
Riddick / Bell / Abdullah flex but not this week

WR
TY Hilton
Amendola
Bengals Green Jones Sanu
Giants OBJ and Randle**
Bears*
Browns.*

TE
Grab Chandler from New England and play him
Julius Thomas *
Tamme / Davis Broncos

K
Jason Meyers - Jags should give you a high floor of consistency to the end of the season.

DEF
Chiefs
Panthers
Bengals
Cardinals
Texans
Bucs
Bills

All should give you a good chance each week.








Right now, Jason Myers

Fantasy stats

Well I'm sorry I've not posted anything for ages, I decided to develop a stats machine and it's consumed most of my time after the kids a asleep.

Since having kids I've found it far harder to get all the snippets and analyse data properly with so little time on my hands. Add to that trying to do a blog and it adds up to poor results and late blog info.

Obviously I want to sort out my own team first and then if time disseminate the info publicly.

It's nice to be advised to pick up Jeremy Langford, but if I tell you after the waivers have been processed, chances are some cheeky monkey beat you to it.

So back to the stats machine. I used to look at my team, the match ups, look at everything else going on in the league using fantasy points against and a picture would become clear of who to play and who to pick up. Trouble is, when all that was done, it's now time for bed and put my waivers in tired, or sleep on it and risk missing the window! Then oh yeah, Weds night I'd better put something up here!

It took me 12 weeks but I finally put something together that gathers the lot for me. And it takes about half an hour. Joy!

I can't say much more because I'd probably have to kill you, but it's so good I'm considering selling it as a weekly subscription. All you need to do is apply some common sense, sprinkled in with some golden nuggets of info, and hey presto, your lineup is set.

Fantasy Stats

For a while now, probably 2 seasons, it's been the case that nfl.com gives more and more information on who's a sleeper, who to sit, who to start etc. This together with mobile apps and NFL Now, means fantasy team managers are up against the most well informed competitors yet.

Anyone with a smartphone can bone up in 10 minutes and be armed with knowledge that will give them the edge over everyone else.

How do you keep a step ahead in times like this?

Hard work delving behind those stats. Stats that the bods at nfl.com don't readily give out, and would take the average Joe all week to analyse.... Or get someone to do it for you...

Here I hope to give those extra nuggets that don't come easily. As the season rumbles on, the quality of info should in theory get better.

You're looking to use these stats for picking up players with easier schedules and choosing who may have a better week, who's bad away from home, and who has a higher chance of success.

We now only have 2 weeks to work with but there should still be some value in there... It just needs to be mined and lovingly polished into game winning gems!

2015 Season is upon us...

Well, it's been a long offseason, with plenty to talk about and developments to keep an eye on. From deflate-gate to eyebrow raising trades, it's been colourful to say the least.

Having jumped straight in after draft and week one, I'm putting my thoughts down again for another season and hopefully enjoying the ups and (1st) downs.

It you negotiated your draft with the trusty old faithfuls from last season, you're probably wondering how the hell you didn't win week 1.

There's lots of information out there on who is hot and who is not, but nothing beats the eyeball test, coupled with some stat analysis.

Carlos Hyde was obviously top target to add on waivers this week, but here are some other names:

Ameer Abdullah
Chris Ivory
Deandre Hopkins

These are my top 4, as they have great potential to be your starters week in, week out.

My flex starter picks are:

James Jones
Keenan Allen
Mike Ingram if CJ Spiller still out

Solid QBs for Wk 2 and matchup based for the rest of the season:

Alex Smith
Carson Palmer
Sam Bradford

Jason Witten
Tyler Eiffert
Owen Daniels
Eric Ebron

Def wk2
Miami     - J Landry on punt returns could produce something special here
Tennessee
Detroit    - A. Abdullah on special teams makes this a tempting choice, my gut says.... touchdown!
Ravens
Rams
Panthers
Possibly Saints

Don't expect a huge surge in Terrence Williams' points just because Dez is crocked. The cowboys earlier today traded for Brice Butler from the Raiders, and he has a ton of potential. Lance Dunbar for me has the best chance of a surge in his statline.

Mid week huddle - Wk 16

We are down to the final week in a lot of leagues, hopefully you still have something to play for, even if it's just to maintain a shred of dignity in not finishing last among your peers or knob-head mates!

If you are not in a keeper league, you might use this week's waiver wire to suck up any decent pickups that your opponent might use to strengthen any of their weaker roster spots or banged up players. Just be careful the dead weight you toss overboard can't be used against you, or worse still, be needed next week if you have another week in your league - think especially if you need to cover for an injury.

Another dirty tactic might be to drop a particularly strong player if the opponent of your biggest rival has a high waiver priority - they can then pick them up and fight half the battle for you - kind of like an illicit, underhanded trade but in fact is totally fair and legal in the paranoid and backstabbing world of fantasy football!

If you like that, and you have another week to go, you might consider teaming up with someone to intentionally not pick anyone up this week so you go into next week with a high waiver priority, ready to pick up their droppings. That came out wrong. Or do this vice versa as in the previous example.

If it is going to come down to week 17, you might want to do your research now for that streaming defense or kicker or whatever and pick them up this week, getting in ahead of anyone with higher priority next week.

I am assuming in the above cases that your waiver priority is based on who uses waivers least to most, which might not be the case for you. Make sure you check this before doing anything. Another good idea is to check who wins if you are tied, just so if possible you can give yourself an edge.

Who to pick up:

QB
Kirk Cousins plays the Cowboys this week. I would pick him up and play him over most other QBs, just to make sure I get 20 points in that position. Unless you have Peyton Manning, Nick Foles or Ryan Tannehill I would seriously consider him. Drew Brees has the Panthers and that makes me nervous - you've come too far at this point to take that risk. Nick Foles also makes me nervous, but I seem to trust him more. Philip Rivers should have his best week since week 12.

RB
It's slim pickings right now but if Ryan Mathews is still available, snap him up. He should continue his run of form against the Raiders. He also has a decent matchup against the Chiefs next week. I am even thinking of starting him over Eddie Lacy but still weighing it up.

Danny Woodhead is a high risk play, he might pay dividends but the stats point to Mathews earning more points. That being said, you could do a lot worse and he has plenty of up-side - maybe he will buck the trend on that one week you need him to.

Dennis Johnson becomes the feature back for the Texans this week as Ben Tate's season ends with another cracked rib. Go pick him up and play him with confidence.

Joique Bell, if still available and you have a week 17, pick him up now as we know how prone to injury Reggie Bush can be.

Matt Asiata had a darn good week 15, wait and see if Peterson and Gerhart are fit, but if one or both are out, he should be a good shout for some carries if you are struggling at RB.

WR
Are there any decent wide receivers left?

If Garcon is still out there, take him - Cousins manages to find him where RGIII couldn't.
Julian Edelman and Antonio Brown are not likely to be out there but if by some chance they are, they still have some value. Michael Crabtree is a bit of a risk as the stats just aren't there yet but the good news is he is trending up. The bad news is, he is up against Arizona.

Andre Caldwell should see more action if Welker stays out with concussion - follow the ticker on the right hand side of this page for more up to date news.

Cordarelle Paterson is a decent flex play if you are struggling around the 5 point mark, he should net you around 10.

TE
Dennis Pitta - a low score in week 15 but he was up against Detroit who give up the second least points to this position. He is up against the Pats who are in the top four teams in giving up points to tight ends over the last 5 weeks. Beware though - Charles Clay scored a doughnut against them last week.

Jason Witten - He should be found in the end zone this week in what could be a bit of a shootout. Possibly some snow in this game (I know I was wrong last week - the weatherman needs shooting), so Romo could be even more unpredictable which means it might be Witten's day.

Charles Clay - I mentioned before, did badly last week. Pick him up if desperate, he may reward your faith. The sound of him being dropped this morning across all leagues could be heard over the noise Ira Curry made when she discovered she'd won $648 million on the lottery. If you picked him up and he did well, what a stroke of genius that would be... wait a minute, Clay, isn't that what poker chips are made of? Hell yeah, It's a sign - take the gamble!

Andrew Quarless - It looks like Rodgers is out for another week, which means one of Matt Flynn's favourite guys is still in business. Up against Pittsburgh, should be fine.

Zach Ertz - There should be plenty of points flying about in Philly, and some should come his way.

Anthony Fasano - Again, should get you 8 points rather than the 4 your current guy gives you, that could be the difference maker.

K
Well, I just dropped Gostkowski, who wants him? He is up against the Ravens this week who give up the least points to kickers - 3pts on average. I know he will probably score more than that, but I can't take that kind of chance, you see, I must win this week to win my league. Losing is no good. Especially when that hands the league to my wife. And if he also wins this week, my Father-in-law.

So who do I pick up?

Matt Prater - I can't believe he is available, but he is, so I grabbed him. He should get me 6 - 9 points, anything else is a bonus.

Hauscha - If still out there, could be a decent shout.

Tucker has probably been snapped up already.

If it's a sneaky play you are after, Josh Scobee is up against the Titans who have given up an average of 15 points over the last 4 weeks to kickers - that's incredible. Can the Jags get within field goal range though, especially with their injured offensive weapons?

DEF
I have several here to pick up and plug in if you don't have the Seahawks or Chiefs:

Cleveland Browns - They face the Jets, and with 2 TDs in their last game will be hungry for more.

Detroit Lions - A bit of a gutsy choice, however, they are up against the mighty Eli , who we all know is gunslinging picks right now, so suit them up and release them onto your team.

Denver Broncos - Up against Houston. Case Keenum has thrown his fair share of picks but has he ironed them out completely?

Miami Dolphins - A sneaky play based on the backup QB at the helm.

That's all for now, check back later for more morsels.

Week 15

Well, there is very little chance anybody will read this in time for the Sunday games but I need to start somewhere... thankfully this post comes after the Thursday night game between the Chargers and the Broncos at Mile High! Phew, That could have been an embarrassing first post!

Manning threw for his second fewest points this season and Moreno, both Thomas' and Decker were all under 5 points each! This is all without Welker due to concussion. I would have advised you start all those guys and not even consider Andre Caldwell, who picked up 2 touchdown passes.

On the other side of the ball I would have advised to look out for a big game from Mathews and of course to play Keenan Allen as he is a must start. A shootout was expected but that's not how it went down on what was a cold night. I am pleased my thoughts came off on Mathews having a big night and this is partly what prompted me to pull my finger out and finally write this blog, so thanks Ryan - I fancy you as a starting RB2+ for the last 2 weeks of the fantasy season.

If you have ridden on the shoulders of Peyton Manning all the way into the playoffs, he may have just cost you moving into the semi-final week 16 game, especially if you invested heavily in the broncos' offensive parts.

Lets get on with the rest if this week's matchups:

Chicago @ Cleveland

Snow is forecast throughout this game - which is enough to make anyone skittish about playing the QBs and wide receivers. Though snow isn't normally a problem for QBs, you may want to err on the side of caution if you have Jay Cutler. He is coming off 6 weeks layoff, in poor conditions, but the good news is he will want to prove himself coming back from injury with Josh McCown having had an impressive stint holding the fort in his absence. Cutler will want to make an impression and cement his dominance as the No.1 QB for the Bears despite publicly there being no question he his No 1 from Mark Trestman's perspective.

Beware all players in this game barring Matt Forte and Chris Ogbonnaya who should clean up with the running game. You may have noticed I have not mentioned Josh Gordon, Alshon Jeffery and Brandon Marshall, this is because I have a feeling this is a bad week for them. The only one I would feel I have to play is Flash Gordon, due to his immense ability to latch onto a pass and make a big play. Though if I had no-one else, like a DeSean Jackson or an Andre Johnson, I would start both Bears receivers, reluctantly, and hope they prove my gut wrong.

Simon Says, start Forte, Ogbonnaya, Gordon and Bennett
and you can start Jeffery and Marshall too.... ;-)


Well, I had no idea this blog would take so much time (I do like to provide detail). All this information is written from my head from bits and pieces picked up throughout the week from various sources. As such, most of it is from memory so I do apologise if I get things wrong and I would request whenever you see a mis-spelt name (Chris Ogbonnaya!) please take the jist of what I am saying rather than picking up on it as I am sure you know who I mean!

I have a liitle one, who I have plans with today and he is just about to wake from his nap, which means... Go Time!! Therefore, I do not have time to go through all the games as much as I had hoped as I will be picking my own teams in each of my leagues as usual the hour before the first whistle - you never know when Reggie Bush will decide not to suit up!

So what follows is a list of games, and my starts / sits etc fleshed out as much as possible before hitting the publish button when Prince Charming awakes. Here goes:

Washington @ Atlanta

No RGIII for these last 3 weeks, start Kirk Cousins with confidence. I fancy him for 18+ points.
I have downgraded Alfred Morris from an RB2 to Flex starter, but this week you should see a solid 14 points. I like Steven Jackson in this one despite the projections showing only 8 points, he could net you 14 as well against a poor, shaky skins defense.
Simon says, start Alfred Morris, Kirk Cousins, Steven Jackson
Start Pierre Garcon as a risky WR2 / Flex if pushed.

Houston @ Indy
Ben Tate should bounce back from an underwhelming week 14 to give you double digits again. Andrew Luck appears to be hitting his stride again after a mammoth week 14, but don't be suckered into playing him this week - only use him if you are struggling for a more reliable QB. You can't trust anyone else on the Colts offense barring Donald Brown is a sneaky flex play with plenty of upside. The Texans have allowed 475 rushing yards to RBs over the last 4 games, so you can start him with confidence, and hope for barely legal points - that means 16 in my country but could be even better for you in the U.S. of A.

Simon says start Andre Johnson, Donald Brown
Also start Ben Tate, Andy Luck.

Buffalo @ Jax
Start Cecil Shorts, MJD is an absolute must start if fit. Fred Jackson and CJ Spiller if no-one better on your roster. Hell, sit Spiller. This is the playoffs.

New England @ Miami
Brady I like for this one, he is going to hook up with Edeltron twice in the end zone. Vereen is now the workhorse of this offense, start Shane Vereen - he is going to get you at least 10 points today and potentially 24 if he hits beast mode. Start Hartline, I like him for 13 + points, and play Ryan Tannehill if you had RGIII and didn't drop him before Shannahanahanahanagans did.

Philly @ Minnesotta
It looks to be a beautiful match-up for any Eagles offense you may have. Start Foles and McCoy with confidence. Both Cooper and Jackson should be getting 12 points +
Start Cordarrelle Patterson, he has great upside if the Vikes end up chasing this game which is highly likely.
Although Peterson is questionable, he may be in the line up, but sit him anyway for now. I know he is a beast, but he worked hard to get you to the playoffs, he's been over worked and over stressed this season, give him a rest to see how he fares this week coming off his ankle sprain.

Seattle @ G-Men
I like Lynch in this matchup, the Seahawks defense going up against Eli who has had 20 picks this season.
That is all.

San Fran @ Tampa Bay
Start Vernon Davies, he could be in for a big day. Boldin I would play but I like Crabtree better

NY Jets @ Carolina
Simon says start the Panthers Defense.
Cam Newton will rush in for TDs and score you a boatload.

Kansas City @ Oakland
Start the Chiefs defense, Rod Streater and obviously Jamaal Charles, though it's about time he picked up an injury.

Green Bay @ Dallas
Eddie Lacy if he is fit. Check the news before the game. Rodgers is ruled out so I like Lacy in this matchup. Starks is a likely handcuff, and I can see Lacy coming off from time to time to preserve him. Jordy Nelson is

Simon says start Murray for a boatload of points, Lacy if fit, Jordy Nelson and Mason Crosby.
Dez Bryant will be looking to make an impression, but will Romo find him? I do not like Romo this week.

New Orleans @ St Louis
Start Brees, Graham and Colston - There, I said it! He will replicate his recent good form this week.
Zac Stacy is good for 15 points and so is his mom.

Ari @ Ten
Simon says start Delanie Walker at TE.
Chris Johnson may do well but I want to sit him.
The Tennessee defense is a start.

Cin @ Pit
Simon says start AJ Green and Antonio Brown.
Gio Bernard will get you 10 points, but the law firm will get the goal line plays.
Bell is good for 9.

Bal @ Det
I like Pitta to score 1 - 2 TDs in this matchup. That's about all I like from Baltimore. Torrey Smith should see the ball in the end zone but I only like him for 9 points.
Simon says start Megatron and Pitta.
I would start Bell over Bush on Monday night, but this is too much of a risk in the playoffs. I cannot afford to be pushed into a decision so early before the game so am sitting them both and avoiding the problem with one of my backups like Steven Jackson or Chris Ogbonnaya.

Enjoy the rest of Week 15

Hello World!

Well, this is a project I've been meaning to do for a while now. I've been competing in fantasy nfl for the last four or five years, had my ups and downs (almost on a weekly basis) and feel I take such an avid interest in the subject that I should share my views and opinions with the world.

I am not saying I am the fantasy football oracle, anyone who has played the game will know just how unpredictable it can be, sometimes frustratingly so, sometimes delightfully so. When you are up against a strong team and your core players are dinged up, there is nothing sweeter than playing a long shot with high upside and pulling off a surprise 20 points to win the week!

If you are looking for those few tips that might give you the edge, you might glean enough here to give you that edge over the competition. Likewise, being the double edged sword fantasy football is, there will be times you would have been better off doing the opposite of what I say!

So if you read a post stating: 'Play CJ Spiller this week', be very on your toes when following this advice - he may give you a fantasy lead balloon. Be more inclined to play him if I had posted, 'Simon says play CJ Spiller this week'!

I should say at this point that I play the nfl.com version of the game, using plain vanilla settings, with a couple of tweaks to put right points allocations I feel are too measly or too generous.

I started out with the UK version (stupidly) and was burned in my first season when, after all the preparation of getting a league together, they failed to have the platform live for week 1. "WHAT!", I hear you say? That's right, in fact if I remember correctly it was week 3 by the time things were up and running, by which point the season was binned.

After that I switched to the nfl.com version and never looked back. Of course, the nfl.com version of the game is a complete setup, from online drafting, to creating roster spots as deep as you dare including Individual Defensive Players (IDPs) if you so wish. There are other formats out there, but I have stuck to the nfl.com version and will continue to do so until they make a balls up of it.